Once true in close election races was engaged voters siding for Republicans and the less engaged could put Democrats over the top.
Not so in 2024, says the North Carolina executive director for American Majority Action.
Coupled with efficiency using campaign dollars, the nonprofit is on the ground running to get conservatives to vote early in his battleground state as well as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.
The effort is also happening in Minnesota and Virginia, the latter a state Republicans lost by 5 points in 2016 and 10 points in 2020 but now trending toward swing status.
Former President Donald Trump has a consensus lead over President Joe Biden in statewide polls for battleground states North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, according to Redfield and Wilton Strategies sampling.
“I spend a lot of time studying polls and looking at results across the country,” Dallas Woodhouse told The Center Square in a one-on-one interview this week. “We have a flip this election of what has been the conventional wisdom. That conventional wisdom being, the most engaged voters are going to vote for Republicans and less engaged can put Democrats over the top. So a lower turnout favors Republicans, higher favors Democrats.
“That’s absolutely not true with what we have now. If you look at the polls, Biden is doing the best with people most dedicated in this cycle. People that have a little less propensity to vote are the ones that statistically put Trump over the top. Bottom line is, when really good voters vote first and early, and get off the list, you can move down the list to the least reliable and turn them out and that’ll be the difference in winning and losing.”
Thursday night’s debate – negative for Biden, even by measurements of left-leaning media, and status quo or better for Trump – ripped through Democratic supporters’ contention of a fit 81-year-old.
Still, partisan sides have their men, the debate wasn’t going to change that.
