NED RYUN: Ohio’s Early Absentee Ballots Requests Preview Romney Win

Keep America Free: American Majority Action Ohio

Romney Closing the Gap in Every County Compared to 2008, Republicans Have Narrowed the Gap 9 Percent Overall

Polls can be manipulated—real votes can’t.

In Ohio, the latest poll from NBC/WSJ/Marist gives President Obama an eight point lead in Ohio, and the RealClearPolitics average shows Obama winning by 5.5 percent. Obama beat John McCain in Ohio by 4.8 percent, and if we are to believe these polls, President Obama is on track to beat Mitt Romney by an even wider margin—despite the down economic indicators and a lack of excitement for the President.

That’s not going to happen.

With a month to go in this election, the one real performance indicator we have—early absentee ballot requests—shows Republicans have narrowed the gap in every county on record in the state.

Two of the most populated counties, Franklin and Summit, are on track to narrow the gap 10 percent and 27 percent respectively.  College professors in Ohio have begun to keep track of this county data and shared it exclusively with American Majority Action (AMA).

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican—a 14 point gap.  So far in 2012, only 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican—only a five point gap.

The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers demonstrate GOP momentum in the state even more dramatically.

  • Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20 point shift.  
  • Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18 point shift.
  • Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15 point shift.
  •  Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) – 6 point shift.
  • Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM –17 point shift.
  • Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10 point shift.
  • Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23 point shift.
  • Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17 point shift.
  • Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6 point shift.
  • Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16 point shift.
  • Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM – 24 point shift.
  • Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17 point shift.
  • Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27 point shift.
  • Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14 point shift.
  • Summit County:  Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27 point shift.
  • Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11 point shift.

The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent (and as much as 27 percent) to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes (assuming voters registered in a party vote for their candidate) demonstrate a significant Republican shift since 2008.

Dr. Larry Schweikart, professor at the University of Dayton and a #1 New York Times bestselling author, tells AMA exclusively, “So far, although it is early the overall across-the-board direction of every single county in Ohio, seems to be not just challenging the pollsters’ template that Obama is widening his lead but is obliterating it.

“And, although it is early, we will soon be at a point where—assuming Republicans vote for Romney—the Dems will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”

Some on the Left will blame Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted for this Republican trend. He’s made a big push to streamline and increase absentee voting, favoring older and generally more conservative voters. However, absentee turnout doesn’t seem dramatically different so far from 2008.

What has changed are the voter rolls in Ohio. Husted has removed 450,000 deceased voters and duplicate registrations from the rolls. The vast majority of these voters were registered Democrats, and considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio’s cleaner rolls could make a big impact.

These factors, and especially the Republicans’ clear advantage in absentee voting, have been ignored by the media in order to continue their narrative that conservatives can’t win this November. Republicans can win in Ohio if these trends continue—and with a good Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort.

Despite what the media thinks, polls don’t win elections. Beyond Romney’s debate performances, only conservative activists and volunteers can win Ohio. If these Americans knock on doors and talk to their neighbors, conservatives have a fighting chance to fire Obama. To empower these grassroots activists, American Majority Action has launched Liberty Headquarters in Ohio and other key swing states.

It’s tough to see how Mitt Romney wins in November without Ohio.  But looking deeper than the talking heads on television, we can see victory there more clearly for the GOP.

Ned Ryun is the President and CEO of American Majority Action, a national grassroots organization targeting Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, and Wisconsin this fall. For more information, call (540) 751-8774. 

To request access to the Ohio County data, email ron@am-action.org.

Originally published by Daily Caller.