Trump cannot let Biden and his campaign “hide the football.”
Clear-eyed political observers understand there is more than meets the eye with almost any poll. Everyone wants to trumpet the one topline—“Biden beating Trump by 10!”—without really digging in to see what else a poll is saying. With last week’s American Greatness/TIPP Florida poll, however, there are some important and interesting data points that deserve closer examination.
Yes, Biden is leading Trump by 10 points in a state that Trump cannot afford to lose. That’s cause for concern. No electoral map makes sense for Trump if he loses Florida. And yes, among likely voters, which is a key data point, if the election were held today, their votes go to Biden by an 11-point margin.
None of this is good, but it’s beyond this line where things get interesting.