The latest Pennsylvania absentee ballot returns show Republicans opening up a 19 point lead over the Democrats–a nearly 17-point swing from 2008 absentee results.
In Ohio, the latest absentee returns show a 9-point swing to Republicans compared to the 2008 results.
This spells trouble for the Obama campaign, even if they are leading the early voting in Ohio (which isn’t necessarily true). In 2008, Obama trailed McCain by 1.9 percent among the 295,000 absentee voters in Pennsylvania. In 2012, Obama trails Governor Romney by 18.8 percent among the 115,000 absentee voters (assuming Democrats vote for Obama, Republicans vote for Romney). Obama won the state by 10 percent overall in 2008.
In 2008, Democrats had a 15.6 percent advantage among the 1.4 million absentee voters in Ohio. Democrats now leads by only 6.5 percent among the 1.2 million absentee voters (where data is available). In Ohio, voters don’t register by parties, but we can determine party by how they voted in previous primaries. President Obama won Ohio by 4.6 percent in 2008.
These early indicators aren’t always conclusive, but it sure shouldn’t make the Obama campaign comfortable. Along with the narrowing polls– these numbers show
.
Conservatives, including American Majority Action’s concerted grassroots efforts, have helped turn Pennsylvania into a swing state. While the economy and the first presidential debate have pushed voters to re-think their support for the President, outside conservative groups have also been organizing in the state for months.
Since Labor Day, American Majority Action’s multiple offices have utilized more than 400 interns and volunteers to knock on tens of thousands of doors. Pennsylvania was considered an easy win for Obama early this year, but we believe it’s totally in play.
Ned Ryun is the CEO and President of American Majority Action.
Originally published on the Daily Caller.
